As Emperor Rann declines, Jay Weatherill climbs

Friday, November 26, 2010

Poll tolls for Rann

KEVIN NAUGHTON (InDaily Online)

ALP officials have commissioned private research on who should replace Mike Rann as Premier, say senior party insiders, and the top pick is Jay Weatherill.

Key party officials have been briefed in recent days on the poll results based on the views of more than 1000 voters – a significantly credible sample.

The findings are likely to be widely discussed in the private meetings of officials at this weekend’s State Convention of the ALP.

Two officials who have seen the polling report have told Indaily the results present a dilemma for the party.

“The Right is confronted with a dilemma because none of their candidates are within range of being an acceptable choice for leader,” one official said.

“They are now considering what the options are.”

Education Minister Weatherill topped the poll with 34 per cent, while the Right’s preferred choice Kevin Foley is at just two per cent.

Respondents also named Mr Foley as the person least preferred as next Premier.

It’s understood that among the remaining 11 Lower House ministers none is close to Mr Weatherill in the poll.

The results are mirrored in a public poll published today in The Advertiser.

The poll of 544 voters shows a similar collapse in Labor’s primary vote and strong support for Mr Weatherill as replacement leader.

It’s a significant change of position for the party which now appears to have “moved on” from the leadership pairing of Mike Rann and Kevin Foley.

“The fact is that the party knows that the leadership is on the nose with South Australian voters,” one senior official said yesterday.

“”They’ve run their race and there needs to be a transition before too much damage is done.

“The notion that the Premier be allowed to stay until he breaks some longevity record is no longer being accepted within the party.

“Longevity is no justification for holding office.”

It’s understood that the leadership poll followed previous polling which showed a major fall in the party’s primary vote.

Adelaide University’s head of politics Dr Clem McIntyre says the polling is another sign the ALP is readying itself for change.

“The notion that Rann can hang on till the end of 2011 or early 2012 and then hand over is now looking remote, he said.

“I don’t think he’ll get that far. We are seeing all the signs that the party has switched off from its disciplined approach of the last eight or nine years.

“The O’Brien incident in parliament was extraordinary,” Dr McIntyre said, referring to a parliamentary tiff last Wednesday between the Agriculture Minister and Mr Foley.

“I’m struck by how ill-disciplined the party has been since the State Budget (in September).

“I’ve been scratching my head to remember a minister getting a pasting like that from a colleague on the floor of the House and I can’t.”

Dr McIntyre said it was possible for the Right faction to do a deal with Jay Weatherill – a member of the Left – as part of leadership discussions.

“Look, if he was offered a deal where he moved from the Left faction in exchange for the Premiership of the State then I don’t think he would need much thinking time.”